Hazard Mitigation Plan update · Section 4 draft · prepared October 3, 2026
Ogle County, Illinois Hazard Profiles
Draft. Built from public National Weather Service storm records (NOAA Storm Events, 1982 to June 2026). Not an adopted plan and not reviewed by FEMA.
Ogle County's plan, the Ogle County 2020 Hazard Mitigation Plan, expired June 17, 2025 in FEMA's plan-status data, with no update recorded as in progress on October 3, 2026. This chapter drafts the hazard-profile section of the update from 513 storm reports for the county, every one traceable to a NOAA event ID.
At a glance
7 hazards appear in the federal storm record for Ogle County. Thunderstorm wind is the most frequent; winter storms account for the most recorded deaths and damage.
Hazard
Days with reports, 1996–2025
Years with at least one
Deaths*
Injuries*
Property damage entered*
Thunderstorm wind
114
30/30
0
7
$1.0M
Hail
51
26/30
0
0
$30K
Tornado
12
10/30
0
0
$10.2M
Flooding
36
20/30
0
0
$619K
Winter storms
74
26/30
1
0
$0
Lightning
4
4/30
0
2
$35K
High wind (no storm)
14
12/30
0
1
$65K
* All years on record (tornado, wind and hail from the 1980s; other hazards from 1996). Dollars are as entered, not adjusted for inflation.
How often, year by year
Days with at least one report, 1996 to 2025. Each panel has its own scale. Hover a bar for the year.
Thunderstorm wind114 days · 30 of 30 yearsHail51 days · 26 of 30 yearsFlooding36 days · 20 of 30 yearsTornado12 days · 10 of 30 yearsWinter storms74 days · 26 of 30 yearsLightning4 days · 4 of 30 years
Show the numbers behind the charts
Year
Thunderstorm wind
Hail
Tornado
Flooding
Winter storms
Lightning
High wind (no storm)
1996
3
0
0
2
0
0
1
1997
1
1
0
1
1
0
2
1998
6
1
0
0
1
1
1
1999
4
1
1
1
2
0
0
2000
1
3
1
1
3
0
0
2001
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
2002
1
1
0
2
2
0
1
2003
5
3
0
0
1
0
2
2004
3
1
0
1
0
1
0
2005
2
1
0
0
2
0
0
2006
5
7
0
0
2
0
0
2007
8
1
0
3
4
0
0
2008
11
2
0
1
5
0
1
2009
3
2
0
3
3
0
0
2010
7
1
0
3
2
1
1
2011
4
4
1
1
1
0
0
2012
5
2
0
0
1
0
1
2013
3
2
0
1
1
0
0
2014
2
2
0
0
1
0
0
2015
2
1
1
1
3
0
1
2016
4
1
0
0
1
0
0
2017
4
4
1
2
0
0
0
2018
1
2
0
4
1
1
1
2019
2
0
0
3
7
0
1
2020
7
1
2
0
2
0
0
2021
3
0
1
0
5
0
0
2022
3
2
1
2
8
0
0
2023
2
2
1
1
5
0
0
2024
6
2
2
0
5
0
0
2025
4
1
0
2
5
0
0
When in the year
Days with reports by month, 1996 to 2025. Darker means more days.
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Thunderstorm wind
1
1
6
11
30
33
17
8
3
4
Hail
5
16
10
8
6
2
2
1
1
Tornado
1
2
1
4
3
1
Flooding
2
1
2
4
9
7
7
2
1
1
Winter storms
25
20
7
2
1
4
15
Lightning
1
3
High wind (no storm)
2
2
1
2
1
1
2
3
Tornado tracks, 1988–2026
24 tornadoes. Lines run from touchdown to lift within the county; dots are tornadoes recorded at a single point. Hover a track for its date and rating.
F0/EF0F1/EF1F2/EF2F3 or strongerF5Unrated
County outline from the Census Bureau (simplified); community labels sit at the average location of reports naming them.
Hazard profiles
Each profile answers FEMA's questions for hazard identification: what it is, where, how bad (extent), what has happened, and how likely it is to happen again.
Tornado
Description
A violently rotating column of air in contact with the ground, rated after the fact on the Fujita scale (through January 2007) or the Enhanced Fujita scale, EF0 to EF5, by the damage it leaves.
Location
Countywide; tornado reports name 17 communities, most often Lindenwood, Baileyville and Carthage.
Extent
The strongest on record is the EF4 of April 9, 2015 near Carthage. Tornadoes rated F2/EF2 or stronger touched down on 1 separate day.
Previous occurrences
24 tornadoes on 17 days from 1988 to 2026. The busiest day was May 22, 2011, with 3. Weather Service survey, April 2, 2026: "An NWS damage survey confirmed that a brief EF-1 tornado with estimated peak winds of 105 mph impacted a few properties along Ridge Road in southern Ogle County. One house had two-thirds of its roof removed by the tornado and several trees were damaged by the tornado as well."
Probability
At least one tornado in 10 of 30 years (33%) from 1996 to 2025.
Recorded losses
0 deaths, 0 injuries, $10.2M in property damage as entered by the Weather Service (6 of 24 reports carry a dollar figure).
Severe thunderstorm wind
Description
Straight-line winds from thunderstorms, including downbursts, measured or estimated at 58 mph (50 knots) or more.
Location
Countywide; reports name 31 communities, most often Polo, Oregon and Rochelle.
Extent
The highest gust on record is 87 knots (100 mph), estimated near Forreston on August 10, 2020. 18 reports reached 65 knots (75 mph) or more.
Previous occurrences
244 reports on 134 days since 1982. August 10, 2020: "Straight line winds gusting to 100 mph hit the town of Forreston producing widespread tree and power line damage. Tree and power line damage occurred across 48 blocks of the village and structural damage occurred across 13 blocks. Several …"
Probability
Reports in 30 of 30 years (100%) from 1996 to 2025; about 3.8 damaging-wind days a year.
Recorded losses
0 deaths, 7 injuries, $1.0M in property damage as entered by the Weather Service (36 of 244 reports carry a dollar figure).
Hail
Description
Ice stones from thunderstorm updrafts; reported at 3/4 inch and larger in this record.
Location
Countywide; reports name 22 communities, most often Polo, Mt Morris and Oregon.
Extent
Largest: 2.75 inches near Chana on May 20, 2014. 3 reports of 2 inches or more.
Previous occurrences
95 reports on 61 days since 1985.
Probability
Reports in 26 of 30 years (87%) from 1996 to 2025.
Recorded losses
0 deaths, 0 injuries, $30K in property damage as entered by the Weather Service (2 of 95 reports carry a dollar figure).
Flooding (river, flash and heavy rain)
Description
River flooding, and flash flooding when heavy rain overwhelms streets, ditches and small streams.
Location
Countywide; reports name 18 communities, most often Rochelle, Byron and Polo.
Extent
The costliest entry is July 24, 2010, at $268K in property damage.
Previous occurrences
50 flood, flash-flood and heavy-rain reports since 1996. July 25, 2025: "Route 64 was flooded in multiple locations between Skare Road and Interstate 39 and ditches along the road were full of water. Video showed a few inches of water on Route 251 near Route 64. Multiple houses and basements …"
Probability
Reports in 20 of 30 years (67%) from 1996 to 2025.
Recorded losses
0 deaths, 0 injuries, $619K in property damage as entered by the Weather Service (4 of 50 reports carry a dollar figure).
Winter storms and ice
Description
Heavy snow, blizzards, ice storms, sleet and lesser winter weather, recorded by forecast zone rather than by point.
Location
Countywide (forecast-zone records).
Extent
Ice storms on 5 occasions. Zone records rarely give snow or ice totals; the full plan adds station data.
Previous occurrences
75 zone events from 1997 to 2026: 30 winter storm, 24 winter weather, 10 heavy snow, 5 blizzard, 5 ice storm, 1 sleet.
Probability
Events in 26 of 30 years (87%) from 1996 to 2025.
Recorded losses
1 death, 0 injuries, $0 in property damage as entered by the Weather Service (0 of 75 reports carry a dollar figure).
Lightning
Description
Cloud-to-ground strikes that injure people, start fires or damage property. Only damaging strikes are recorded.
Location
Countywide; reports name 2 communities, most often Rochelle and Byron.
Extent
0 deaths and 2 injuries on record.
Previous occurrences
4 damaging strikes since 1998.
Probability
Damaging strikes in 4 of 30 years (13%) from 1996 to 2025.
Recorded losses
0 deaths, 2 injuries, $35K in property damage as entered by the Weather Service (2 of 4 reports carry a dollar figure).
High wind (not from thunderstorms)
Description
Strong winds from large storm systems rather than thunderstorms, recorded by forecast zone.
Location
Countywide (forecast-zone records).
Extent
Highest: 61 knots (70 mph).
Previous occurrences
15 zone events since 1996.
Probability
Events in 12 of 30 years (40%) from 1996 to 2025.
Recorded losses
0 deaths, 1 injury, $65K in property damage as entered by the Weather Service (3 of 15 reports carry a dollar figure).
Not covered by this record
Extreme heat, extreme cold, drought, earthquake and dam failure are not in the storm archive this chapter draws on. The full chapter profiles them from NOAA climate records, the U.S. Drought Monitor, USGS shaking maps and the state dam inventory, and the planning team decides which belong in the plan.
Previous occurrences by community
FEMA asks for hazard history for each participating jurisdiction. These are the communities the Weather Service names most often as the nearest place to a report.
Nearest community named in the report
Thunderstorm wind
Hail
Flooding
Tornado
Lightning
All
Polo
36
15
4
55
Rochelle
31
7
10
3
51
Oregon
35
9
3
47
Byron
18
7
5
1
1
32
Mt Morris
19
13
32
Forreston
8
6
2
1
17
Stillman Vly
5
5
1
1
12
Creston
7
3
1
11
Lindenwood
6
2
3
11
Leaf River
6
3
9
Monroe Center
5
3
1
9
Davis Junction
5
2
1
8
Baileyville
2
3
2
7
Davis Jct
3
4
7
Chana
3
1
1
1
6
Kings
5
1
6
Daysville
4
2
6
Stillman Valley
5
1
6
What this draft covers, and what the full update adds
Covered here
Type, location and extent of each recorded hazard (FEMA review element B1).
Previous occurrences and probability of future events, countywide and by community (element B2).
Added in the full update
Vulnerability and impacts on people, buildings and critical facilities from county parcel and building data (element B3).
National Flood Insurance Program repetitive-loss properties from FEMA (element B4).
Planning-team meetings, public input, capability review, the mitigation strategy and adoption.
Data notes
Before 1996 the storm database records only tornado, thunderstorm wind and hail, so every rate on this page uses 1996–2025.
Recent reports rarely carry a damage estimate: 1 of 115 wind, hail, tornado and flood reports since 2019 do. A missing dollar figure means "not estimated," not "no damage."
Reports follow people. Towns with more spotters and roads show more reports.
Winter storm, high wind and some flood events are recorded by forecast zone, not by point.